- in the top four (champions league places);
- in the bottom three (relegation positions).
To properly evaluate forecasting skill, I think you’d need to collect and assess match outcome predictions. It would be very interesting to set up a controlled experiment. That’ll take some thought: something to discuss over the long barren summer.
For now, I’ll collect up predictions from those that want to participate and present them here, along with some summary analysis. How the results are presented will undoubtable vary over the next 16 weeks. It’s a community project so I'm happy to take suggestions.
I’ll put out a twitter request for updates each week (@eightyfivepoint). To submit, either alert me on twitter, or send an email. Data will be made available to anyone on request. It would be great if participants could also provide a brief write-up of their methodology at some point (data used, and how) to help classify and interpret the results.
Here are the forecasts collected so far for Gameweek 25. I (still) promise I'll find a better way of providing them.