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Showing posts from January, 2017

Poor FA Cup crowds erode home advantage

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I was struck by the poor attendances at some of the FA Cup 3rd round matches this month. 17,632 turned up to watch Sunderland vs Burnley, less than half Sunderland’s average home gate this season. It was a similar story at Cardiff vs Fulham, Norwich vs Southampton and Hull City vs Swansea, all of which saw crowds below 50% of their league average this season.

An interesting statistic was recently posted on Twitter by Omar Chaudhuri, of 21st Club (@OmarChaudhuri). If you take all 181 FA Cup ties that involved two EPL teams (ignoring replays and matches at neutral venue) since the 2000/01 season, you find that the home team won 46% of the matches and the away team 30%. However, if you look at the equivalent league match between the teams in the same season, you find that the home team won 52% of the matches and the away team 22%. Although the sample size is small, the implication is that home advantage is less important in cup matches.

Lower FA Cup crowds and diminished home advantage -…

The Frequency of Winning Streaks

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Thirteen – an unlucky number for some. So it proved for Chelsea: just one win shy of equaling Arsenal’s record, their thirteen-match winning streak was finally ended by an in-form Spurs side. While there may be some temporary disappointment amongst Chelsea fans at having failed to set a new record, their winning run has almost certainly propelled them into the Champions League next season and made them clear favourites for the title.

Sir Alex Ferguson would often refer to momentum as being instrumental to success. A winning streak can sweep teams to the title or snatch survival from the jaws of relegation. What constitutes a good streak is clearly dependent on the team, though.  Manchester United are currently on a five-match winning run: such form would certainly be outstanding for a relegation-threatened team, but is it common for a Champions League contender? This question is itself part of a broader one: what is form and how should we measure it?

In this blog I’m going to take a l…