Posts

Showing posts from December, 2016

Does January transfer spending improve results?

Image
Last week the Sunderland chief executive, Martin Bain, warned that only "very limited" funds will be made available to David Moyes in the January transfer window (see here, here and here). Bain said that Sunderland are “not going to be able to spend to get out of trouble” and that "we have reached a point where there has to be a time where you don’t have that short-term hit to plug the holes in the dam".

The implication is that Sunderland have put their long-term financial health at risk in previous seasons by spending substantial sums in January in a last-ditch effort to retain their EPL status. While they have indeed survived their recent flirtations with relegation, is there any compelling evidence that winter spending actually improves results in the second half of the season? By out-spending their rivals, are troubled teams boosting their chances of staying up, or are they just using up previous financial resource that could be invested more carefully in their…

Playing in Europe does affect domestic results in the EPL

Image
There’s recently been a bit of discussion in the media (e.g: Sky, Guardian) on whether participation in European competitions has a negative impact on an EPL club’s domestic performance. This is partly motivated by the significant improvements shown by Liverpool and Chelsea this season: after 13 games they are 10 and 17 points better off than at the same stage last season, respectively. Neither are playing in Europe this year. Leicester are demonstrating a similar trait, albeit in the opposite direction: they are now 15 points worse off than last season. For them, the Champions League seems to have been a significant distraction.

Numerous studies have demonstrated that there is no ‘hangover’ effect (see here and here) from playing in Europe. There is no evidence that EPL teams consistently perform worse in league matches that immediately follow a midweek European fixture. But what about the longer-term impact? Perhaps the mental and physical exertion of playing against the best teams …