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Showing posts from November, 2016

Final Table Predictions for the EPL

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In a previous post I looked at how the EPL league table evolves over a season, showing that we already have a decent idea of how the final league table will look after just a third of the season.

I’ve now taken that analysis a step further and built a simple model for predicting the total number of points each team will accumulate over the season (and therefore their final rankings). What follows is a short summary of how the model works; I've provided more technical detail at the end.

Season simulations
Each team starts with their current points total. I then work my way through the fixture schedule (currently 260 matches), simulating the outcome of each game. Results are generated based on the Elo rankings of each team – which I update after each simulated match – and the benefits of home advantage (scroll down to the last section for more details). At the end of the ‘season’, I tally up the final points totals for each team.

This process is repeated 10,000 times to evaluate th…

Elo Impact: Who are the EPL’s most effective managers?

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Manager rivalry is one of the big themes of the season. Many of Europe’s most successful managers have converged on the EPL, sparking renewed and fierce competition between England’s biggest clubs as they battle on the pitch to achieve domestic superiority.  In the background there is another competition, one of a more individual nature. Guardiola, Mourinho, Conte and Klopp are seeking to establish themselves as the pre-eminent manager of their generation. As touchline galacticos, their rivalry mirrors that of Europe’s top players.

Success is often measured relative to expectation. Second place this season would probably be seen as a good finish for Liverpool, but not Man City. So Klopp and Guardiola will be judged against different standards. If Moyes guides Sunderland to a top ten finish he’ll win manager of the season.

For the same reason, it’s difficult to compare their track records. A manager may have won an armful of medals, but was it the result of years of sustained improveme…

Wenger's Winter Curse

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Halloween may have passed but Arsenal's fans will remain fearful throughout November. This is the month where, historically, Wenger's team have tended to perform significantly below par. Since Wenger took charge in 1997, Arsenal have collected an average of 1.6 points per game in November, compared to a season average of 2 points per game.

In fact, as the figure below demonstrates, Arsenal don't really recover until mid-December. The thin blue line shows the average number of points that Wenger's Arsenal collect in each gameweek of the season; the dashed blue line shows a 3-game moving average. The Nov/Dec curse is clearly visible[1].

For comparison, I've also plotted the same results for Man United under Ferguson. For both teams, I used data from the seasons 97/98-12/13, the period in which the two managers overlap.


It's interesting to compare the seasonal performance of the two managers. In the first and final thirds of the season, Wenger's points-per-gam…